Epilogue…Prologue…Countdown
by Mark Solomon
You know, they say that all time is relative, and that it flies when you’re having fun. So after what has to be the longest off-season in Husker football history, (relatively speaking), I thought I’d take this opportunity to take a brief look back at the finale of 2009 season, a longer look at the preseason hype surrounding the Big Red, (quite deserved, in my opinion), a rundown of what lays ahead in NU’s last season in the cursed Big 12 Conference, and about 30 seconds on Nebraska’s hapless opening day opponent, which is about 29 seconds more than the likely level of competition merits.
Nebraska closed out what I believe will prove to have been a pivotal 2009 campaign by laying a good old-fashioned woodshed beatdown on the previously highly-regarded Arizona Wildcats in the Holiday Bowl. As had been the case in all but one game during the regular season, (Texas Tech), the Blackshirts set the pace with a dominant performance. Arizona netted over half of its total yards in the waning minutes of the game on a meaningless drive. Still, the Nebraska defense bowed up to stop them once again, preserving the first shutout in the Huskers’ storied Bowl history.
If the Blackshirts’ performance constituted business as usual during the 2009 campaign, the offense’s 33-point outburst was a very welcome and unexpected surprise. We saw many new wrinkles, from the Big Red version of the “Wildcat” formation with do-everything phenom Rex Burkhead at the helm to Zac Lee proving effective with his legs and accurate with his throws throughout an entire game against a (supposedly) formidable defensive unit. Roy Helu saw very little action due to injury for the second Bowl game in a row, but he wasn’t needed, as the up-tempo pace and varied nature of the Huskers’ offensive onslaught proved far too much for the overtaxed Wildcats.
It was kind of embarrassing, really, and hell and gone from pre-game expectations. Arizona had shared the PAC-10’s runner-up position with Stanford and Oregon State, and was favored by many to win the game, and by practically all to play Nebraska close. A 33-point outburst by the offense was as uncharacteristic as it was welcome, following the unit’s relative futility throughout the season, including a pathetic performance in the Big 12 Championship Game that flat-out cost them the Conference Championship and a BCS berth.
We can gripe about the officials’ unprecedented addition of a single second to the expired game clock that allowed Texas to kick a game-winning field goal, (it was a horrendous misapplication of a rule, stretched beyond all reasonable limits by a braintrust comprised almost entirely of Conference and game officials with University of Texas or Texas ties, and no team from the Big 12 North would have gotten the call, had the situation been reversed), you can cite Adi Kunalic’s unbelievable shank on NU’s final kickoff, giving the Longhorns better starting field position off of a kickoff than they’d enjoyed all night, you can bemoan Larry Asante’s ill-timed horse collar, (a BS rule, in my opinion), you can point out any of several dozen uncalled holds and chop-blocks on Ndamukong Suh by the desperate and dirty Texas offensive line, but the bottom line is, had NU’s offense managed just ONE touchdown – and they started one 4th-quarter drive at the Texas TEN YARD LINE, for the love of God and all things Holy! – there is no way a dazed and battered Colt McCoy and a complicit officiating crew could have found a way to steal a victory at the end of the game, “+0:01” or not.
So it seemed nothing short of a belated Christmas miracle when the Husker offense steamrolled the Arizona defense for three full quarters, before easing up on the throttle in the 4th, when it became obvious to everyone – included the UA coaching staff – that the Wildcats could not score against the Blackshirts.
Following the game, we learned that Zac Lee had played with a torn flexor tendon in his throwing arm since Week 3 of the season, and speculation began as to how much that affected his passing. It also occurred to many that it didn’t bode at all well that Cody Green couldn’t beat out a quarterback with such an fundamental impediment as a damaged throwing arm.
But the very notion that NU’s offensive staff – including its usually-intransigent Offensive Coordinator – could have formulated an innovative, unexpected, and highly-effective retooling of the Big Red attack in just over a month gave many hope that 2010 could prove to be a very special season in Lincoln. After all, had NU fielded a merely decent offensive squad for the entire season, they might well have gone undefeated, given the impenetrable nature of the 2009 Blackshirts. (Just imagine if those Blackshirts had had to play, say 15 or 20% fewer snaps, as a solid offense would have allowed them to do!).
I believe we will see a leap forward by the Husker offense in 2010, with at least ten areas of obvious and profound improvement.
ONE:
The quarterback position. The math here seems simple enough. A surgically-repaired and fully-healed Zac Lee in 2010 > An injured Zac Lee in 2009, and if either Cody Green or Taylor Martinez, (and current rumblings in Lincoln point to “T-Magic” as tomorrow’s starter), can beat him out for the starter’s position, Nebraska’s quarterback will be significantly better in 2010.
TWO:
A healthy Roy Helu, a healthy Rex Burkhead, and a refitted and game-tested Dontraveous Robinson at I-back can only mean good things to a Husker offense that claims an uncompromising commitment to establishing a dominant running game. When healthy, Roy Helu is among the best Nebraska has ever fielded, and Rex Burkhead is a marvelous throwback and ultimate team player. Had either Helu or Burkhead remained healthy in 2009, I doubt Nebraska would have lost at least three of the four games they dropped.
THREE:
An upgraded offensive line. From a slimmed-down pair of Joneses on one side to a more refined Ricky Henry, to a pitbull at center in Mike Caputo, to a healed-up and slimmer Keith Williams, to a monstrously-talented newcomer nicknamed “Yoshi” on the left, to an O-Line depth chart laden with previously-redshirted talent the likes of which NU hasn’t seen in over a decade, the term “Pipeline” may well be uttered by Husker fans with something other than wishful thinking behind it in 2010.
FOUR:
Brandon Kinnie and Mike McNeil as downfield threats. Too often in 2009, Niles Paul seemed the only option to stretch the field against quality opponents. The emergence of Kinnie down the stretch and his continued development during the offseason immediately provides a second viable and reliable target for whichever NU quarterback emerges, and the repurposing of McNeil inserts talented hands and a very large body into a dizzying array of mismatch possibilities against practically any defense.
FIVE:
NU’s Offensive coaching staff acting as a team to produce and refine a viable college offense. By all accounts, the retooling of the Husker Offense was a project-by-committee, with some reports even intimating that Tom Osborne and Milt Tenopir were intimately involved in the process. Tim Beck’s influence seems obvious enough in the spread and zone read concepts that have been incorporated, and it would appear that Barney Cotton finally got his wish and redesigned many run-blocking schemes, (keep a close eye on backside blocking in particular), and that whether by choice or by a judicious (and overdue) application of force by Head Coach Bo Pelini, Offensive Coordinator Shawn Watson has finally let loose of the notorious and ridiculous “8-Pound Playbook” philosophy behind Nebraska’s offensive approach.
SIX:
Depth by redshirt. In 2008 and 2009, it was obvious that Pelini and crew bit the bullet in many cases and made due with existing personnel, rather than burn redshirts willy-nilly for talented incoming freshmen who may well have been able to improve the team. Where the 2004-2007 staff held showed little regard for anything past the following week’s game and the impressing of visiting potential recruits, Pelini’s staff made the decision to build for the future, providing depth, proficiency, and experience within systems that haven’t been seen at Nebraska since the halcyon days of the 90s. 2010 is the year we start to see the payoff for their patience and foresight.
SEVEN:
Year Three. By a new coaching staff’s third year, especially when that staff has seen no turnover during that period, the majority of players have known no other systems, have practiced fundamentals only one way, and have adopted only one guiding philosophy in their approach to the game. Most of the holdovers from the prior staff have either bought in fully or been purged from the team. The staff has come to know and trust one another, developing chemistry and synchronicity in adjusting on the fly, and the Head Coach has established and entrenched himself as the ruling authority over the whole ball of wax, as well he should.
EIGHT:
History. The Nebraska football team under Pelini has become worthy of the legacy of this storied program. They “get it” in a way that was all but wiped out by the sterile handling of the program under Bill Callahan. They play with passion, intensity, and proficiency, with a focus on the fundamentals that maximizes talent. Such are the benefits of sound coaching.
This ownership was prominently displayed by the defense in 2009, as they regained the swagger long exemplified by the Blackshirts by simple hard work and an unshakable trust in their coaches and in one another. I believe that 2010 will mark the season where the offense follows suit, and become worthy successors to past Husker offensive juggernauts.
NINE:
The schedule. It’s all but tailor-made for the offense to develop. (No, Washington’s defense is nothing like the one NU faced last year against Virginia Tech in Week 3). The first potentially-decent defense the Huskers will face will be at Kansas State on October 7th. The first potentially-excellent defense they will run up against comes to Lincoln on October 17th. By the time of that Texas game, Nebraska’s offense will have found an identity and established its strengths and its leaders.
TEN:
The defense, of course. Despite the loss of once-in-a-lifetime standout Ndamukong Suh, the Blackshirts will again be among the nation’s best defensive units, which takes a tremendous amount of pressure off of the offense while giving it more opportunities over the course of the game. Add to the mix punter Alex Henery’s uncanny knack for pinning opponents deep, (to say nothing of his right leg making the opponent’s 40-yard line a scoring opportunity in his role as a placekicker!), and NU’s offense should see manageable starting field position more often than not.
The breakdown of the season by way of predicting outcomes is also pretty clear, in my opinion:
Western Kentucky – please.
100% WINIdaho – might be interesting through the first half.
100% WINAt Washington – I’m not buying Jake Locker as being capable of defeating the Huskers single-handedly.
90% WINSouth Dakota State – what, was Lincoln Southeast High unavailable?
110% WINKansas State – Running back Daniel Thomas is formidable, and the Wildcat defense should be the toughest to this point, but it won’t be enough.
90% WINTexas – hatred for this malevolent program should be at a fever pitch come October 16th. It will be a slugfest, but this time, it’s in Lincoln, and I’d be willing to bet none of the officials from last year’s Conference Championship Game will be within 500 miles of Lincoln, let alone on the field to aid in the Longhorns’ cause. It will be a satisfying day in the end.
75% WINOklahoma State – T. Boone Pickens will eat some crow, because all his money can’t buy this one for the Cowboys.
90% WINMissouri – In Lincoln? No. Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert gets manhandled again on his way to a zero-victories-against-NU career.
95% WINIowa State – Nebraska will not be generous enough to cough up the ball eight times.
100% WINKansas – Hello and goodbye, Turner. Best of luck in the future. Nebraska rolls.
100% WINTexas A&M – Easily the biggest “trap” game on the schedule. I don’t believe the Aggies will have improved as much as some are predicting, but Kyle Field is a snake pit (a cordial, polite snake pit, but a snake pit nonetheless). It will be a squeaker, but…
80% WINColorado – If Dan Hawkins is still around by this game, he may not be afterward.
100% WINYes, that’s 12-0, and yes, I know how pollyannish many will find that prediction, so save the “Kool-Aid” and “Husker-colored glasses” quips, sit back, and watch it unfold. I see exactly two games where NU could reasonably be expected to stand a solid chance of losing, those being Texas and Texas A&M.
The bottom line is that Nebraska is a legitimate Top Ten team for the first time in many years, and barring several unforeseen hiccups, injuries, or self-inflicted wounds, will play in the Big 12 Championship Game in December, and return to the BCS in January of 2011.
The season opener brings one of the worst teams in Division I to Memorial Stadium, and the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky aren’t likely to start a big turnaround for their program in Lincoln. I suppose I could go into some degree of analysis for this game, citing a decent running back in WKU’s Bobby Rainey and a dual-threat quarterback in Kawaun Jakes on offense, and a Defensive Coordinator who has beaten a Shawn Watson-led Nebraska offense while at Kansas.
But none of it really matters. This is the University of Nebraska’s 2010 season opener, in Lincoln, in a night game, facing a team sporting the longest current losing street in Division I, with a new coaching staff trying to solve the many shortcomings inherent in a team that is winless in its last 20 games. It won’t be pretty, and Nebraska can essentially name the score.
Many pundits are tossing out predictions with the Huskers scoring in the 50s or 60s and the Hilltoppers failing to score a touchdown. Personally, I think NU’s final point total will be somewhat lower; not because WKU’s defense will stop them consistently, but because this first game is going to be used by Pelini and Company as a trial by fire for many new faces on both sides of the ball, which may keep the score down somewhat artificially. Defensively, I do believe it is possible, even probable, that the Blackshirts will keep Western Kentucky out of the endzone, perhaps even off the scoreboard entirely. But the rotation of lower-unit players to build depth through game experience will perhaps offer WKU a few opportunities.
I’m going to say Nebraska 49, Western Kentucky 13. Everyone in Scarlet & Cream will play, the outcome will never be in doubt, and we’ll have much more to talk about next week.
I mean no disrespect to the Hilltoppers. They’re still one of 120 or so schools who play in Division I, and they do have some fine athletes on their squad. But they aren’t yet a sound program, their new coaching staff’s systems are nowhere near fully established, and those fine athletes are currently too few in number for them to adequately compete at this level.
Like it or not, this is a “paycheck” game, a necessary evil in modern scheduling. Given the nature of NU’s apparent rotations in the Big Ten Conference, you will probably see non-conference schedules almost as spongy as the 2010 edition fairly often, particularly in those seasons where Nebraska faces Ohio State and Wisconsin from the opposing division, along with yearly crossover opponent Penn State.
We will know more about the 2010 Huskers by early Saturday evening, but will still have much to learn regarding just how good they are now, and how good they can become over the course of the season. But it has to start somewhere, and tomorrow night’s game will offer the first tantalizing glimpse into what could be the best season of Nebraska football since the 1990s.
I can hardly wait for kickoff!
See you in Lincoln!
